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We invite you to join the GfK U.S. Healthcare Companies Oct. 19-21 in Philadelphia at the Second Annual Meeting of The Pharmaceutical Marketing Research Group (PMRG) Institute. As a follow-up to PMRG’s Annual National Conference in March, this meeting, titled The Prophet’s Toolbox, will further explore the marketing researcher’s role in predicting the future by evaluating tools that can assist with this challenging task.
To kick off the conference, on Monday, Oct. 20 at 9:45 a.m., Doug Willson, Ph.D., Senior Vice President of Marketing Science for GfK Strategic Marketing, will discuss one such tool and present the following workshop:
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A perfect fit for the meeting’s theme, Dr. Willson’s workshop will demonstrate how adding risk analysis tools to the “Prophet’s Toolbox,” in combination with choice models developed from primary market research, will help improve early-stage pharmaceutical market forecasts and allow for better investment decisions.
While it is not possible to know the future with certainty, workshop participants will learn that it is possible to properly reflect uncertainty in the forecasts and decisions they make. More specifically, the presentation will show how the risk analysis approach provides:
- More accurate estimation of expected market shares to assess market opportunities and inform go/no-go decisions for products in development, or as a precursor to in and outlicensing valuation discussions.
- More thorough sensitivity analysis surrounding the drivers of market potential because the complete range of possible outcomes for each unknown attribute is included in the analysis.
- Better identification of crucial valuation thresholds. What is the probability that a certain market share will be achieved?
The session will offer valuable insights in regard to forecasting strategies, and participants will walk away with the ability to:
- Elicit and collect expert opinion from internal sources about relevant attributes and levels in choice models that can be used to support risk analysis.
- Use information to design better attributes and levels underlying choice models and improve the experimental designs that are typically used to support choice model questionnaires.
- Choose the right approach for adding risk analysis tools to choice model simulators (standard Excel-based market simulators using custom software versus special purpose programs).
- Avoid getting caught up in technical risk analysis details and identify simple measures for conveying insights to all stakeholders.
- Incorporate choice models and risk analysis tools into common valuation frameworks like discounted cash flow/net present value modeling and real options valuation.
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We encourage you to take a look at the full conference program and consider joining the GfK U.S. Healthcare Companies and hundreds of other industry colleagues at the 2008 PMRG Institute.
The PMRG Institute
Oct. 19-21, 2008
Philadelphia, PA
Click here for the full conference agenda
Representing the GfK U.S. Healthcare Companies at the PMRG Institute:
, Group CEO, GfK U.S. Healthcare Companies
, Senior Vice President, GfK Market Measures
, Senior Vice President, GfK Strategic Marketing
, Senior Vice President, GfK Strategic Marketing
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Adding Risk Analysis to the Prophet’s Toolbox: GfK's Workshop at the 2008 PMRG Institute, Monday, Oct. 20
